昆曲艺术创意推广研究

作为首批被列入“人类口头与非物质遗产代表作”的昆曲，在21世纪初又一次焕发出青春活力，受到国内外各界广泛观注。如何保护和推广昆曲这份瑰丽的遗产并使之回归到大众的生活中，是非物质文化遗产保护的重大课题之一。以昆曲艺术的文化内涵和社会使命为出发点，探讨如何以提升人们的欣赏水平、审美趣味、生活品质为目标，通过传统与现代的融合来推广昆曲。     

基于耦合协调度模型的南京市用水效率与经济发展关系

基于2007—2014年南京市用水效率与经济发展的时间序列数据,构建南京市用水效率系统与经济发展系统间的耦合协调度模型,探讨南京市在2007—2014年期间用水效率与经济发展之间的动态均衡关系。首先对用水效率系统和经济发展系统的综合状况进行评价,然后对两系统的耦合协调度进行定量分析。结果表明:2007—2014年南京市用水效率和经济发展水平都有大幅度增长;两者的耦合协调关系在波动中逐渐优化,2007年处于低度协调耦合阶段,2008年处于中度协调耦合阶段,2009—2014年处于高度耦合协调阶段;只有提高用水效率与经济发展并举,才能保持耦合协调度的增长趋势。最后针对用水效率系统和经济发展系统存在的不足,提出在用水效率方面优化用水结构、加强水质污染治理,经济发展方面则调整经济结构、增强经济活力等建议。     

Reducing visitor car use in a protected area: a market segmentation approach to achieving behaviour change

This research uses a market segmentation approach to reducing transport-related environmental burdens from visitors, while maintaining economic benefit. The approach was tested in the Lake District National Park (UK). It aimed first to explore visitor transport behaviour using a social psychological framework, to understand what might best predict desired behaviour change (i.e. reduced visitor car use). Second, it developed and tested different types of marketing messages to reduce car use, based on persuasive communication theory, establishing marketing propositions appropriate to different visitor types and market segments. Third, it identified market segments with both a high propensity towards positive behavioural change and the highest economic contribution to the destination. The work is based on Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behaviour and on persuasive communication. Three hundred and ninety completed questionnaires were obtained. The paper emphasises the importance of context in successful communication to influence behaviour and shows that a market segmentation approach to behavioural change can be successful. Complex patterns of visitor mobility and modal choice emerge. For example “New Explorers” and “Familiar Families” are most likely to reduce their car use (45% and 48% respectively) and less likely to perceive this as difficult.     

不同类型建设用地扩张的时序及空间特征——加速失效模型在静海区的应用

研究目的：分析城市扩展中交通用地、商住用地和工业用地扩张的时序特征、空间关系以及扩张时点的影响因素。研究方法：农地—建设用地转换最优时机理论；加速失效模型。研究结果：（1）不同类型建设用地在扩张过程中具有相互关联的时序和空间特征；（2）静海区交通用地引导了其他建设用地扩张的方向，而不同级别交通用地由于对建设用地和农用地影响的差异，加快或延缓了建设用地扩张的时机；（3）商住和工业用地在200— 400 m 范围内相互集聚，且商住用地产生的集聚效应强于工业用地。研究结论：细化建设用地类型以分析城市扩张的特征和机制，有助于城市扩展区的布局优化和集约发展。     

Effects of land urbanization and land finance on carbon emissions: A panel data analysis for Chinese provinces

The rapid urbanization in China comes with several economic, social, and environmental issues, most of which are related to land use. This study contributes to research on the land–growth–environment nexus by investigating the effect of land urbanization and land finance on carbon emissions in China from 2004 to 2013 using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. Results show that land finance and land urbanization significantly affect carbon emissions. The rate of land urbanization contributes to the reduction of carbon emissions; however, it has less impact compared with other determinants. The effect of land finance and land urbanization on carbon emissions indicates that a local government’s willingness to lease land for revenue aggravates carbon emissions. Economic growth and industrial structure also influence carbon emissions. Furthermore, the land requisition system and rural land conversion market should be enhanced through the guidance provided by the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) to promote the diversification of land transfer, fully consider regional differences, and establish a distinct policy focus that can contribute to emission reduction and land use.     

Major bleeding risk and healthcare economic outcomes of non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients newly-initiated with oral anticoagulant therapy in the real-world setting

Aims: This study compared the risk for major bleeding (MB) and healthcare economic outcomes of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) after initiating treatment with apixaban vs rivaroxaban, dabigatran, or warfarin.

Methods: NVAF patients who initiated apixaban, rivaroxaban, dabigatran, or warfarin were identified from the IMS Pharmetrics Plus database (January 1, 2013–September 30, 2015). Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance differences in patient characteristics between study cohorts: patients treated with apixaban vs rivaroxaban, apixaban vs dabigatran, and apixaban vs warfarin. Risk of hospitalization and healthcare costs (all-cause and MB-related) were compared between matched cohorts during the follow-up.

Results: During the follow-up, risks for all-cause (hazard ratio [HR]?=?1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?1.2–1.7) and MB-related (HR?=?1.57, 95% CI?=?1.0–2.4) hospitalizations were significantly greater for patients treated with rivaroxaban vs apixaban. Adjusted total all-cause healthcare costs were significantly lower for patients treated with apixaban vs rivaroxaban ($3,950 vs $4,333 per patient per month [PPPM], p?=?.002) and MB-related medical costs were not statistically significantly different ($100 vs $233 PPPM, p?=?.096). Risk for all-cause hospitalization (HR?=?1.98, 95% CI?=?1.6–2.4) was significantly greater for patients treated with dabigatran vs apixaban, although total all-cause healthcare costs were not statistically different. Risks for all-cause (HR?=?2.22, 95% CI?=?1.9–2.5) and MB-related (HR?=?2.05, 95% CI?=?1.4–3.0) hospitalizations were significantly greater for patients treated with warfarin vs apixaban. Total all-cause healthcare costs ($3,919 vs $4,177 PPPM, p?=?.025) and MB-related medical costs ($96 vs $212 PPPM, p?=?.026) were significantly lower for patients treated with apixaban vs warfarin.

Limitations: This retrospective database analysis does not establish causation.

Conclusions: In the real-world setting, compared with rivaroxaban and warfarin, apixaban is associated with reduced risk of hospitalization and lower healthcare costs. Compared with dabigatran, apixaban is associated with lower risk of hospitalizations.     

A Gendered Model of the Peasant Household: Time poverty and Farm Production in Rural Mozambique

Using insights from a case study on the allocation of labor in subsistence households in Mozambique, this study develops a conceptual framework for examining linkages between time poverty and farm production. An unexpected event such as a health crisis increases the demand for labor provided by women, thus making them more time poor. The model and numerical simulations show that a deterioration in a woman's time constraint will have an adverse effect on agricultural output of the household. This occurs because most women respond to an increase in household work by reducing their work hours on the farm and by reducing their leisure time. The latter outcome is expected to have a negative effect on women's physical and mental health, which will then cause a decline in their productivity on the farm.     

Adaptive society in a changing environment: Insight into the social resilience of a rural region of Taiwan

Taiwan has abundant biological resources that provide a quality living environment; however, industrial land use may change that environment through urban sprawl and thus have impacts on rural society. This study examined the experience of a Taiwanese rural region that has been exposed to industrial wastewater discharge specifying the relationship of industrial development to rural society and its role in policy. We addressed the societal adaptation to environmental degradation from risk perception perspectives about land use. Drawing on social vulnerability concept, semi-structured interviews were conducted in five communities that use irrigation water exposed to wastewater discharge. The interviews were designed using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) causal framework to examine residents’ risk perceptions highlighting both built-environmental sensitivity (degradation) and residents’ adaptability (capacity). In addition, remote sensing technology was used to identify the urban sprawl that led to industrial land use and exposed the rural region to water pollution risks. As a result, we present a social resilience cycle to introduce adaptive responses underlining social amplification of risk. Both local knowledge of the locals (the Hakka people) and their societal response to environmental change reflect the role of culture in influencing land use policy. It is underlined that individual and community responses shape the social experience of risk and are related to both the ethnicity of the locals and the land use policy of the government. We indicated further that a large-scale survey that would really quantity this exploratory study to support land use decision-making is expected.     

自然生态空间用途管制理论分析及管制策略研究

研究目的:深入探讨自然生态空间用途管制作用机理及管制策略,助力完善国土空间用途管制制度。研究方法:文献分析法、归纳演绎法。研究结果:(1)模型能够较好反映自然生态空间与城镇空间和农业空间的联动效应;(2)阐明了自然生态空间用途管制行为主体、空间利用行为主体、空间利用行为以及用途管制客体之间的关系及管制作用机理;(3)明确"生态底线"导向的直接用途管制与"精明增长"导向的间接用途管制方式并行的管制策略。研究结论:建议完善国土空间规划体系,建立自然生态空间管制实施机制,加强自然生态空间用途管制要与其他自然资源管理改革制度的统一设计,强化实施自然生态空间管控质量监测评估。     

“互联网+”背景下文化创意乡村旅游产业发展及升级对策研究

贵州省乡村旅游产业出现于2000年左右,2004～ 2007年发展迅速,但随之互联网在我国的普及,在互联网经济影响下,贵州省文化创意乡村旅游业的产值增速出现了明显的下滑.为了能够促进贵州省文化创意乡村旅游产业在“互联网+”时代背景下稳步提升,文章对贵州省文化创意乡村旅游产业发展现状进行了阐述和分析,发现了贵州省在文化创意乡村旅游产业发展方面存在文化创新速度慢、产业模式落后等问题,该文进一步探讨了导致其近年来发展速度明显减慢的主要原因,并对“互联网+”时代背景所带来的发展机遇与产业升级策略进行了阐述,结合贵州省文化创意乡村旅游产业的发展实际,提出了通过运营、销售模式的网络化改造,以促进文化创意乡村旅游产业新发展,着力打造贵州省经济增长新亮点.